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　　Last week Rabobank, the world’s largest Ag-Bank released their 3rd quarter perspective on Global Pork Markets.

　　上周全球最大的農業(yè)銀行荷蘭合作銀行發(fā)布了第三季度全球豬肉市場報告。

　　“The enormous cull” of China’s hog herd over the last 18 months is pressuring production, causing China to expand imports into 2016.

　　中國豬群在過去18個月的“大量淘汰”壓縮了產量，導致中國在2016年要增加進口量。

　　Rabobank animal protein analyst Albert Vernooji says, “The main questions are when Chinese Import growth will start, how much volume growth there will be and what the support for pork prices will be across the globe.”

　　荷蘭合作銀行動物蛋白分析師Albert Vernooji說：“主要的問題是中國將在何時開始出現(xiàn)進口增長，多大的增長會對全球的豬肉價格起到支撐作用。”

　　Rabobank also says:

　　荷蘭合作銀行同時認為：

　　China’s imports will expand second half of 2015 and into 2016.

　　中國將在下半年至2016年增加進口。

　　In the US, the question is if Q2’s margin recovery will continue, as the strong supply rebound will likely be partially absorbed by expected growth in exports to China.

　　由于強大的供應反彈將有可能被對中國出口的預期增長部分吸收，美國的問題是第2季度的利潤是否會繼續(xù)得到改善。

　　The EU market has ample opportunities for price and margin improvement.

　　歐盟市場有機會得到價格和利潤的改善。

　　Continuing disease outbreaks in Mexico and South Korea support high prices and strong import demands.

　　墨西哥和韓國的持續(xù)疫情推動了高價格和強勁的進口需求。

　　China

　　中國

　　We agree with Rabobank about China’s import potential here and now.

　　我們同意荷蘭合作銀行對目前中國進口潛力的認可。

　　Three Key Numbers:

　　三個關鍵數(shù)字：

　　China market hog inventory is 57 million lower than 2 years ago – down 2 million head a week.

　　中國商品豬存欄比2年前減少5700萬頭，每周減少200 萬頭。

　　China sow inventory is down 10.3 million from two years ago.

　　中國母豬存欄比2年前下降了1030萬頭。

　　China market hog price is now $1.25 US live weight a pound. Mid-April it was 85? a pound US. That is a price increase of $100 per head.

　　中國現(xiàn)在的生豬價格為1.25美元/磅活重。4月中旬為85美分/磅。每頭豬的價格上漲了100美元。

　　Less hogs, less sows, and the most important part, hog prices that have rocketed higher reflecting decreased supply and solid demand. The spread between China and the US live weight price is about 70? or $175 per head!!! We are betting that this very moment this price spread is leading to loading of containers of pork to be shipped now. Capitalism will push pork to China.

　　生豬減少、母豬減少，最重要的是，生豬價格的飛漲反映了供應量的下降和強勁的需求。中國與美國活豬價格的差價約為70美分，即每頭175美元!我們打賭，此時此刻的這個差價正在帶來豬肉集裝箱的裝運。資本主義將把豬肉推向中國。

　　China owned Smithfield Foods will lead the way. If they could move 100,000 carcass equivalent a week and gain $100 per head margin that is $10 million a week. Bet that China will keep American supply open!

　　中國老板的史密斯菲爾德食品會帶路。如果他們每周運送相當于10萬頭胴體的產品，每頭獲利100美元，一周就是1000萬美元。中國肯定會讓美國保持供應開放!

　　Country of Origin Labelling

　　原產國標簽制度

　　Senate Agriculture Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) last Thursday offered an amendment to a highway-funding bill to repeal country of origin labelling requirements for beef, pork, and poultry and stave off trade retaliation from Canada and Mexico. A move hailed by NPPC – National Pork Producers Council.

　　美國參議院農業(yè)主席帕特 · 羅伯茨(Pat Roberts，堪薩斯共和黨) 上周四提出公路基金法案的修訂案來廢除牛肉、 豬肉和家禽的原產國標簽制度，并緩和了加拿大和墨西哥的貿易報復。全國豬肉生產者理事會(NPPC)所歡迎的一項舉措。

　　According to Iowa State University economist Dermot Hayes, the average US pork producer is expected to lose $10 per head beginning later this year and into next year, and based on these estimates retaliation from Canada and Mexico against US pork will likely double pork producer losses.

　　艾奧瓦州立大學經濟學家德莫特 · 海耶斯(Dermot Hayes)預計美國豬肉生產商在今年晚些時候直到明年平均將損失10美元。在這基礎上，估計來自加拿大和墨西哥對美國豬肉的報復將有可能給豬肉生產者帶來雙倍損失。

　　Let’s hope the US senate supports Senator Robert’s amendment and business can get getting on.

　　讓我們祝愿美國參議院支持羅伯茨參議員的修正案，這樣行業(yè)可以得到發(fā)展。